Gold and WTI – Technical Review

Gold plummets after Swiss “No” vote



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Gold gapped down on Monday after Swiss voters rejected a measure in a referendum that would have required the Swiss National Bank to boost its gold reserves. The metal tumbled below the support-turned-into-resistance hurdle of 1160 (R1) and the decline was halted a few dollars below our support line of 1146 (S1). This confirms my view that the 7th – 21st of November recovery was indeed a corrective phase of the longer-term downtrend. I would now expect a clear close below the 1146 (S1) obstacle to pull the trigger for the 1132 (S2) line, determined by the low of the 7th of November. Taking a look at our daily momentum oscillators, I see that the 14-day RSI moved below its 50 line and is now pointing south, while the MACD has topped within its negative field and currently looks ready to move below its trigger line.

• Support: 1146 (S1), 1132 (S2), 1125 (S3).

• Resistance: 1160 (R1), 1180 (R2), 1205 (R3).


WTI keeps falling


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WTI continued declining on Friday, breaking below the support-turned-into-resistance line of 67.65 (R1). The decline was halted by the 64.00 (S1) line, where a clear downside break is likely to set the stage for extensions towards our next support hurdle, at 62.70 (S2), determined by the low of the 29th of July 2009. Our near-term momentum studies corroborate the negative outlook of WTI. The RSI, already within its oversold zone, found resistance at its 30 line and moved lower, while the MACD, already below both its zero and signal lines, continued falling. On the daily chart, the price structure is still lower highs and lower lows below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, and this keeps the overall path of WTI to the downside.

• Support: 64.00 (S1), 62.70 (S2), 60.00 (S3).

• Resistance: 67.65 (R1), 70.00 (R2), 71.00 (R3).

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