As far as I am concerened these two words (or lack of) should dictate the markets tonight, either in favour or against the Greenback.
I am still within a split mind whether to count this as a Bullish Wedge pattern. Regardless I think we can all agree the decline had lost momentum before the run up from the 1.225 lows.
The Wedge (if it is one) would project a target to the base at 1.289 and a break below 1.225 lows is required to confirm resumption of dominant bearish trend.
Yesterday’s high broke marginally above the previous swing high to suggest potential for change in near-term trend, but also take note the upper spike failed to close above either the 50sMA / 50eMA. We also have stalled below the 1.260 swing high and MR1.
The way I see it with FOMC meetings the USD pairs are likely to be a ‘binary bet’ in that it will either support USD or not. If FED is Hawkish then EURUSD should favour bearish setups and if they FED fail to deliver (by keeping “considerable time” in their statement, for example) then we should see EURUSD rally.
As we have rallied towards resistance my preferred approach is to fade into any rallies to re-join the bearish trend.