EURUSD rebounds from 1.2400
EURUSD rebounded from the 1.2400 (S2) line on Friday and today, during the Asian morning, it emerged above the resistance (turned into support) of 1.2530 (S1). Nevertheless, the advance was halted by our resistance hurdle of 1.2575 (R1), defined by the high of the 4th of November. Even though our near-term oscillators support the case for further upside, I would expect any extensions of Friday’s recovery to remain limited near the 200-period moving average and the 1.2620 (R2) line, which is the 50% retracement level of the 15th of October – 7th November down wave. The RSI moved above its 50 line and is pointing up, while the MACD crossed above both its zero and signal lines. As for the broader trend, the price structure on the daily chart still suggest a downtrend, but I can spot positive divergence between both of our daily momentum studies and the price action, something that reveals decelerating bearish momentum. Hence, I would prefer to stay flat for now and wait for more actionable signs to convince me that the downtrend is back in force and will most probably continue.
• Support: 1.2530 (S1), 1.2400 (S2), 1.2360 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.2575 (R1), 1.2620 (R2), 1.2750 (R3)
GBPUSD finds support near 1.5600
GBPUSD hit the support line of 1.5600 (S1) on Friday and rebounded. Today, during the Asian morning the rebound was stopped slightly above the 1.5730 (R1) resistance barrier, which happens to lie fractionally close to the 61.8% retracement level of the July 2013 – July 2014 uptrend. However, I see signs that the short-term recovery may continue a bit more, perhaps towards the support-turned-into-resistance line of 1.5800 (R2). On the 4-hour chart, the RSI exited its oversold territory, edged higher, and is now heading towards its 50 line, while the MACD, although negative, appears willing to move above its trigger. On the daily chart I see a possible hammer candle. As for the broader trend, I maintain the view that as long as Cable is trading below the 80-day exponential moving average, the overall path remains to the downside and I would treat any possible extensions of the current rebound as a corrective move before sellers pull the trigger again. A clear break below the 1.5600 (S1) support will probably trigger downside extensions towards the psychological bar of 1.5500 (S2).
• Support: 1.5600 (S1), 1.5500 (S2), 1.5430 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.5730 (R1), 1.5800 (R2), 1.5950 (R3)
EURJPY declines after hitting 146.50
EURJPY tumbled after finding resistance at 146.50 (R1) and during the early European morning appears ready to challenge the 145.00 (S1) line as a support this time. In my view, the rate is most likely to move below that line and perhaps target the 143.40 (S2) barrier, which stands slightly below the 23.6% retracement level of the 16th of October – 17th of November rally. Our short-term oscillators support the notion. The RSI exited its overbought field and is pointing down, while the MACD has topped and could move below its signal line any time soon. However, the overall outlook of this pair remains positive in my view and I would see the present pullback or any possible extensions of it as a downside corrective wave before the bulls take the reins again.
• Support: 145.00 (S1), 143.40 (S2), 142.00 (S3)
• Resistance: 146.50 (R1), 147.00 (R2), 148.00 (R3)