EURUSD, GBPJPY, NZDUSD – Technical Review

EURUSD finds resistance at the upper bound of the channel

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EURUSD edged higher on Wednesday to find resistance near the 200-period moving average and the upper boundary of the blue upward sloping channel. I would stick to my neutral stance and I would treat the recovery from 1.2360 as an upside retracement of the longer-term down path. On the daily chart, although the price structure remains lower peaks and lower troughs below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, there is still positive divergence between both of our daily momentum studies and the price action. The positive divergence give me extra reasons to sit on the sidelines and wait for more actionable signs to convince me that the downtrend is back in force and likely to continue.

• Support: 1.2440 (S1), 1.2400 (S2), 1.2360 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.2575 (R1), 1.2620 (R2), 1.2750 (R3)
GBPJPY breaks above 185.00

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GBPJPY continued its rally on Wednesday, exiting the sideways path it’s been trading since the beginning of the month and breaking above the psychological line of 185.00 (S1). I would now expect the move above 185.00 (S1) to see scope for larger bullish extensions and target the high of the 3rd of October 2008, at 189.00 (R1). Both our near-term oscillators violated their black downside resistance line and firmed up, designating strong bullish momentum. As long as the rate remains above the black uptrend line taken from back at the low of the 15th of October, and above both the 50- and the 200-period moving averages, the overall path of GBP/JPY stays to the upside in my view.

• Support: 185.00 (S1), 184.30 (S2), 181.00 (S3)
• Resistance: 189.00 (R1), 190.00 (R2), 192.00 (R3)
NZDUSD finds support at 0.7820

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NZDUSD tumbled on Wednesday reaching the support line of 0.7820 (S1). A clear dip below that line could have larger bearish implications and perhaps open the way for our next support line at 0.7700 (S2). Our near-term momentum studies maintain a negative tone. The RSI moved lower after finding resistance slightly below its 50 line, while the MACD, already below its trigger line, obtained a negative sign. I also see negative divergence between both the indicators and the price action. In the bigger picture, the rate oscillates between the 0.7700 (S2) support zone and the resistance of 0.7980 (R1), thus I would maintain a neutral stance as far as the overall path of this rate is concerned.

• Support: 0.7820 (S1), 0.7700 (S2), 0.7660 (S3)
• Resistance: 0.7980 (R1), 0.8100 (R2), 0.8230 (R3)

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