EURUSD, GBPJPY and NZDUSD Techincal Review

EURUSD finds buy orders at 1.2400

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visit EURUSD, GBPJPY, NZDUSD pages for the latest Analysis.

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EURUSD tried to move lower after finding resistance at 1.2440, but it found buyers near 1.2400 (S2) and edged higher. The RSI moved above its 50 line, while the MACD, even though within its negative territory, lies above its trigger. Bearing these momentum signs in mind, I believe that the rebound may continue a bit more. However, on the daily chart, the overall path remains to the downside and I would expect the recent rebound or any extensions of it to provide renewed selling opportunities. Since I still see positive divergence between our daily oscillators and the price action, I would prefer to see a decisive dip below 1.2360 (S3) before getting more confident on longer-term downtrend. Such a break is likely to pave the way for the 1.2250 area, defined by the lows of August 2012.

• Support: 1.2440 (S1), 1.2400 (S2), 1.2360 (S3)

• Resistance: 1.2500 (R1), 1.2575 (R2), 1.2620 (R3)

GBPJPY ready to retrace

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GBPJPY failed to print a higher high and found again resistance near the 186.00 (R1) line. Today, during the early European morning, the rate is trying to break below the black uptrend line, taken from back at the low of the 15th of October. In my view, a dip below the 184.00 (S1) support is likely to reaffirm the case and perhaps signal the beginning of a downside corrective phase. Our momentum signs corroborate the possibility of such a move. The RSI moved lower and is now approaching its 50 line, while the MACD, although positive, stands below its signal line. Furthermore, I can spot negative divergence between both these indicators and the price action. On the daily chart, I still see a longer-term upside path, but our daily oscillators reveal upside weakness as well. The 14-day RSI exited its overbought conditions and moved lower, while the daily MACD shows signs of topping and could fall below its trigger any time soon.

• Support: 184.00 (S1), 181.00 (S2), 180.00 (S3)

• Resistance: 186.00 (R1), 189.00 (R2), 190.00 (R3)

NZDUSD dips below 0.7820

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NZDUSD fell below the support (turned into resistance) line of 0.7820 (R1) to complete a possible short-term “head and shoulders” pattern and to confirm the negative divergence between our momentum indicators and the price action. Although the pair found support at 0.7765 (S1) and rebounded afterwards to challenge 0.7820 (R1) as a resistance this time, I believe that one more down leg is looming and I would expect another test near the support area of 0.7700 (S2) after the bears pull the trigger. In the bigger picture, the rate oscillates between the 0.7700 (S2) support zone and the resistance of 0.7980 (R2), thus I see a sideways path longer-term.

• Support: 0.7765 (S1), 0.7700 (S2), 0.7660 (S3)

• Resistance: 0.7820 (R1), 0.7980 (R2), 0.8100 (R3)

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