EURUSD rebounds back above 1.2500
EURUSD moved higher on Monday to trade back above the 1.2500 line. Taking into account our momentum signs, I would stay watchful that the rebound may continue. The RSI exited its oversold zone and moved higher, while the MACD has bottomed and seems willing to cross above its trigger. However, since the possibility for a lower high still exists, I would stick to the view that the near-term outlook stays negative. I would treat this rebound or any extensions of it as a corrective wave before sellers take the reins again. I would expect a clear dip below the support of 1.2400 (S2) to trigger another strong leg down, perhaps towards the 1.2300 (S3) area, defined by the low of the 20th of August 2012. As for the broader trend, as long as the price structure is lower peaks and lower troughs below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, the overall trend remains to the downside in my view.
• Support: 1.2435 (S1), 1.2400 (S2), 1.2300 (S3).
• Resistance: 1.2550 (R1), 1.2635 (R2), 1.2700 (R3).
GBPJPY pauses at 182.50
GBPJPY continued its rally on Monday to reach and break above the psychological zone of 180.00 (S2). The surge found resistance at 182.50 (R1), where a clear upside break could trigger extensions towards the next psychological zone of 185.00 (R2). Nonetheless, checking our momentum oscillators, I would expect a short-term pullback before the next up leg. The RSI lies within its overbought territory and is pointing somewhat down, while the MACD has topped and could cross below its signal line in the near future. As for the bigger picture, the move above the high of the 19th of September, at 180.70 (S1), confirmed a higher high on the daily chart and this keeps the overall outlook of the pair positive.
• Support: 180.70 (S1), 180.00 (S2), 178.00 (S3).
• Resistance: 182.50 (R1), 185.00 (R2), 188.50 (R3).
AUDUSD stays within its sideways path
AUDUSD moved lower yesterday, but after finding support near the 0.8640 (S1) hurdle, it rebounded somewhat. The rate remains within a sideways range between the 0.8640 (S1) support obstacle and the resistance of 0.8900 (R3). Our oscillators show that the pair could stay within this path for a bit longer. The RSI rebounded from slightly above its 30 line and is now pointing up, while the MACD, although negative, shows signs of bottoming and could move above its signal line soon. As a result, I will maintain my flat approach and I will prefer to wait for the pair to exit the sideways path.
• Support: 0.8640 (S1), 0.8565 (S2), 0.8500 (S3).
• Resistance: 0.8760 (R1), 0.8850 (R2), 0.8900 (R3).