EURUSD, EURJPY and GBPUSD – Technical Review

EURUSD falls on Draghi’s comments

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visit EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY pages for the latest Analysis.

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EURUSD collapsed on Friday after ECB President Mario Draghi said that officials will do what they must to raise inflation, leaving the door open for more drastic measures. The pair violated two support barriers in a row to find support at the 1.2360 (S1) hurdle, defined by the lows of the 6th and 7th of November, before rebounding somewhat. A clear move below that obstacle would confirm a forthcoming lower low on the daily chart and perhaps open the way for the 1.2250 (S2) area, marked by the lows of August 2012. Taking a look at our daily momentum studies, I still see positive divergence between them and the price action, something that gives me additional reasons to wait for a decisive dip below 1.2360 (S1) before getting more confident on the downside.

• Support: 1.2360 (S1), 1.2250 (S2), 1.2130 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.2400 (R1), 1.2440 (R2), 1.2500 (R3)

EURJPY corrects lower

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EURJPY continued pulling back after forming a shooting star candle pattern on the daily chart. Today, during the Asian morning, the pair found support near the 50-period moving average and the 145.60 (S1) line, which happens to be the 23.6% retracement level of the 16th of October – 20th November up move. Looking at our daily momentum studies, I would stay cautious that the downside retracement may continue. The 14-day RSI moved lower and exited its overbought territory, while the daily MACD shows signs of topping and could move below its signal line in the close future. However, I still believe that the overall trend remains to the upside and I still expect a test at the psychological line of 150.00 (R2) after the correction is over and the bulls manage to take control again.

• Support: 145.60 (S1), 144.70 (S2), 143.40 (S3)
• Resistance: 149.00 (R1), 150.00 (R2), 151.50 (R3)

GBPUSD still within a short-term range

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GBPUSD continued trading in a sideways manner, staying between the support line of 1.5600 (S1) and the resistance of 1.5730 (R1). A clear break below the 1.5600 (S1) line is likely to open the way for the psychological barrier of 1.5500 (S2). On the other hand, a move above 1.5730 (R1) could target the 1.5800 (R2) barrier. Both our near-term oscillators lie near their equilibrium levels, confirming the trendless short-term bias of the rate. However, as for the broader trend, I will hold the view that as long as Cable is trading below the 80-day exponential moving average, the overall path remains to the downside.

• Support: 1.5600 (S1), 1.5500 (S2), 1.5430 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.5730 (R1), 1.5800 (R2), 1.5950 (R3)

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