A trade idea to satisfy those with a much longer holding time, or one to consider over the festive period. Time may be on your side here.
This could be considered more of an investment than a trade but we do appear to have the potential for a long-term H&S top to form, with the right shoulder (RS) also forming an H&S top.
Due to the volatility of this pair a much wider stop would be required but you do have the added bonus of positive swaps if you correctly identify the trend whilst short. Also as liquidity will be much lower over the festive period, assuming you do hold any trades, a wider stop and longer time horizon would be wise (assuming correct trade management is used).
If you look at W1 you’ll also notice that last week formed a Shooting Star candle and we appear on track to form an inside bearish week and 2nd Shooting star if we close around current levels.
Whilst my overall bias is down you should also note this currency has the ability to trade in erratic, choppy sideways ranges for long period of time before moving aggressively in a particular direction. This is another reason that I would consider this more of an investment than a trade, as a larger account size will be required to allow for the extra volatility (and wider stop) whilst remaining within your preferred risk amount in relation to account size.